Mike Mihajlovic has some interesting insights at his site. I think what I've seen so far dismisses too readily the effects of kinetic impacts as trivial (see Postol's work although I understand how he got to his conclusion). It's reasonable to think that based on 1st order physics, and that the impactor converts on contact into a ball of plasma, but it's misleading.
It doesn't take into account the detailed penetration dynamics of solids at Mach 10 and the resulting shock generation. Also unaccounted for is the combined impact of multiple shock generators on underground structures.
The key technology that the Russians apparently have is something that is solid at 4000 C. This is not unreasonable. There are known ultra-high temperature ceramics in that regime (e.g. hafnium carbide).
Really, HfC? And at only a density of about 11g/cc... Who would think of using such a light material! (Guilty).
(Also, HfC starts to oxidize in atmosphere at rather low temperatures, below 500° C?)
I've learned a lot about aerospace heat shielding, friction heat dissipation & reduction, exotic ceramic/heat shield technologies, material properties and engineering of composites for reentry bodies fabricated with same these last days. Wish it were towards a more constructive end, can't we get back to exploring our solar system soon?
I don't get how people are so surprised by this claim of 4000C, as if astronauts haven't been returning from 2-3x the speed and remained uncooked. It's just ablative shielding, it prevents the payloads from even reaching that temperature...
I'd argue that the damage an Oreshnik does is so minimal that it does not justify its extreme cost. Its projectiles do not explode and destroy everything in a wide blast radius but transfer their energy nearly exclusively to the ground. I'd argue that a conventionally-armed Oreshnik is, damage-wise, around the same as a single Iskander in most scenarios. But an Oreshnik costs an order of magnitude more. The Oreshnik is extremely bad value-for-money without nuclear payload. So I predict that it therefore will only be used a couple more times for testing/intimidation/propaganda purposes and then never again - at least not without nukes on it.. The missile is specifically designed and intended to deliver MIRVed nukes.
It's great to show the capability to nuke Europe in an economical manner and to show Russians that "we can hit things w/o their ability to intercept it".
The Cost/Benefit analysis you suggest is somewhat flawed, if you'll permit me...
The Concept derives from a SciFi writer(s) imagination - Jerry Pounelle and Larry Niven, circa the late 60's or early 70's - named thereby "The Rods of GOD'...
In thier 'conception' onesuch would be a SINGLE IMPACTOR weighing several tons, being delivered from Orbit, AT Orbital re-entry velocity. Those would consist of Platinum plated Tungsten or Tungsten Carbide Rods which when striking the ground would best be approximated as a Subterrainian Nuclear detonation...without a NUKE...
Thought to br something on the order of 15 Kt, roughly.
The FOUNDATIONS uderlying most everything within a radius of roughly a 1 mile radius whould be SHEARED out from under all structures within the 'Blast Radius' of impact...
So why is that here germaine?
Simple...the 'Hazel Switch' - which is what Oreshnik MEANS in Russian - is SOLELY a test case for Hyper-kinetic weapons...and NOT the FINAL FORM thereof, IMHO.
Imagine now a SATAN II Super-Heavy ICBM carrying one OR more of those...
Does that illuminate what is here transpiring?
If NOT, then consider that such as THAT might - just might - be capable of reducing NORAD to 'dust' owing to it's EXTREME penetration capability...
The author here did an EXCELLENT job detailing 'Damage Assessment'...a truly commendable effort, IMHO.
Yours is a second person possessive pronoun. It indicates that something is owned by the person you’re addressing, both for second person singular and second person plural.
For example, you might say, “This pencil is yours, not mine.” This sentence means the pencil belongs to the person being addressed, not the person speaking.
Your’s with an apostrophe isn’t a real word, it’s just an incorrect spelling. If you accidentally add an apostrophe to the correct spelling, yours, your writing will look less professional and might confuse your reader.
As to your attempt to "pull rank" with all your "BS-es": Pulling rank is a recognized discussion trick, not a real argument.
You are talking poop brother. The rods from god would impact at about the same velocity as Oreshnik did, just weigh a bit more. Seeing as how KE is linear in mass that ratio in energy would translate to whatever is the ratio in mass, i.e. at most 10-20 tons of TNT. Oreshnik, R-36 and RS-28 can barely lift a single of such tungsten rods, being constrained both by mass and dimensions. There is also very little evidence that it can come anywhere close to the depths of NORAD based on some evidence of it penetrating a couple floors of concrete building. It's a literal mountain made of rock lol.
Before you start wanking off about your academic credentials (which, judging by your strange capitalisation, were probably attained decades ago), I have an MSc in Theoretical Physics and it's just as irrelevant to weapons design and practical collision mechanics as nuclear engineering is.
As an engineer in R&D and manufacturing, I know that when X is much larger and much more complex and much more sophisticated than Y, that X is much more expensive than Y, when manufactured by a factory with access to similar technology in a similar economy to the factory that makes X. X and Y are both made by Russian missile manufacturers - perhaps even by the same factory.
I'm well-versed in the complexity and hence cost of ultra-accurate gyroscopic ring lasers, ultra-accurate bus maneuvering motors with their valves and gas generators and controllers and such. The cost reflects how long it takes and how many people it takes to manufacture something. Relative to a Khinzhal, an Oreshnik is much more expensive for obvious reasons (to an engineer who knows what both are capable of).
The only problem with this is that the two systems can't be compared, because the range of Oreshnik is 5-10x that of the Kinzhal. The valuable comparison is whether Oreshnik is more cost effective than however many MRBMs packaged with a conventional explosive warhead you'd need to duplicate its destructive effect (which is over a wide area)
Ultra precise maneuvering reaction motors & related valving, electromechanical controls, especially very fast acting ones for hypersonic use ARE expensive, difficult to mass produce in spec & etc..
So think about possible "asymmetrical engineering":approaches to obviate this manufacturing bottleneck?
Since it has been broadly hinted that these new RF hypersonic reentry vehicles use surface ionic effects to reduce both atmospheric friction and RADAR visibility, and it has long been theorized that such surface effects could be used to STEER (or even PROPEL?!) high velocity vehicles in atmospheric environments? And solid state electronics to control and implement such ionic steering might be cheaper, easier to mass produce/less susceptible to violent G forces & vibration, less demanding of master machinist level talent to QA test and FASTER ACTING than legacy electro mechanicaly valved reaction drive attitude adjustment/thruster systems?
Perhaps they have found a different paradigm.
Goddamn, I would LOVE to see their shop and pick their engineers brains over a few good Czech beers.
One of the VERY INTERESTING 'things' which abides in the realm of Physics is MHD.
That is "Magneto-Hydro-Dynamics'.
IF we DO obtain really efficient Super-Conductors then that 'principle' could very easily be adapted to produce vehicles which DON'T use 'Rocket Engines' in atmosphere...per your observation.
A while back the Japanese tested an MHD system on a watercraft thet named the 'Yamamoto'. That used both Ekectruc AND Magnetic fields to produce - in effect - a Linear Induction motor powering the craft well beyond 115 mph.
The EXACT same principle can be employed in any ionized fas as that too is a CONDUCTOR and so eminently useful in propelling OR steering a vehicle.
Currently the primary difficulty associated therewith lies in prividing SUFFICIENT ekecyrical POWER thereto. Likely a small FUSION reactor would be required to provide that level of compact power.
Naturally, NONESUCH currently exist...though curiously, just a few years ago Martin-Marrietta openly patented a 'Loop-Handle' design for just such a small, extremely COMPACT unit...which promptly VANISHED from all scientific and technical pubs FORTHWITH...
The aspect of the Oreshnik which EVERYONE seems ti be missing is that THIS IS the very first such EVER DEPLOYED.
Does anyone want to compare 'Fat Man' OR 'Little Boy' to modern Nuclear ordinance?
Once again, the RUSSIANS ARE 'pushing thr envelope' of what IS possible, whilst the entire WEST erroneously believes that 'They' have a GOOD HANDLE on 'things'.
The STUDITY of that mindset is simply TITANIC...truly.
Nothing you wrote makes any sense. The reentry vehicles are only released at a stage where they can't be intercepted anymore so RADAR visibility is irrelevant.
Making each submunition steerable would require dozens of extremely complex, expensive, bulky electromechanics (ring laser gyroscope etc.) and a means to electronically modulate plasma etc. so that it would not even fit in the submunition. Neither would that be *necessary* - the submunitions can be adequately targeted before re-entry. Also: How the hell would each submunition know where it is and where the target is, while being inside a glowing ball of plasma?
You'd argue wrong because this Oreshnik lacked a warhead and thus did not have explosive (just kinetic power). Normally it would carry the equivalent of a FAB 300. Imagine 36 FAB 300s falling on a target at once with supersonic speeds.
Surely it could do serious damage but it would be much more economical to do that damage with the traditional means, Russia has at its disposal. The Oreshnik is the ideal way to nuke Europe and that's what it might be used for, one day, if Europe keeps facilitating attacks on Russia. I think that's the real message.
No. It is not "more economical" with traditional means - reason being that it 1) cannot be shot down and 2) is high precision without being an ICBM 3) can penetrate hardened Soviet buildings
Traditional means are less high precision, cannot penetrate hardened structures and can be shot down
What seems to be missing from most discussions is whether the submunitions were depleted uranium (it’s pyrophoric) and tungsten (to hold the mass together during reentry until impact). Think of the damage a small DU round does entering an armored vehicle, and scale up from there.
Spend some time comparing strengths of candidate materials at elevated temperatures, tendency to ablate/oxidize in atmosphere at hypersonic speeds. Don't limit candidates to what has been used in artillery systems, those are lower velocity applications... Look at patent la apps and research papers for nitrides, carbides, borides and inter metallic compounds/mixtures of all these too.
DU is used by USA & others for kinetic penetrators in anti armor systems because it was CHEAP and AVAILABLE, in fact a WASTE PRODUCT of cold war nuclear programs which they wanted to DISPOSE of rather than store securely forever... DU is not the BEST candidate in all (or most!) regards in THIS application and at such velocities.
Also, plenty of OTHER high density/refractory materials will very happily burn in air with high heat outputs after being smashed by impact into white hot, micron sized particles or even vapor... See here:
Aside from the kinetic impactor bodies themselves (and any related controls), the whole MECHANICAL and airframe/drive system appears to be repurposed legacy late USSR/early RF program developed, mostly pre existing technology with new software/logic/sensor/guidance circuitry- and this new final payload?
Exactly. The Oreshnik has only one conceivable use, which is delivering up to six MIRVed nuclear warheads. The submunitions are intended to be a variety of decoys. And this demonstration was presented to the Russian public as a showcase of Russia's capabilities and a threat to the West that Russia can nuke Polish ports and factories, Romanian NATO installations and so on, w/o getting the European populace too riled up about: "Russia's threatening to nuke us!". Oreshnik is not about threatening to kill the UK government or blowing up Ukrainian installations. It's about showing that Russia has credible means to accurately nuke, with small-yield warheads, anything they want nuked in Europe.
Previously, the Treaty was terminated at the behest of the United States. Well, now the Russians can call any missile, for example, "HAZEL". What to load it with - it depends on the situation. The Russians are never in a hurry to harness...
Well written and informative. As noted, the plant is known to have multiple layers below ground level. Without access to inspection, I doubt we will ever know the true extent of the damage.
Hopefully the next test will be somewhere honest people can look at the aftermath and publish what they find.
It is disgusting the way the West is deriding and ignoring all warnings.
The author probably did not pay attention to the abundantly green trees in the pictures? All November in Ukraine the air temperature was within +7-2 Celsius. Do you know what trees look like in November in Ukraine?
"The Oreshnik’s projectiles certainly seem to have penetrative power, but how deep they go is beyond my pay grade. I’ll leave that problem to the amateur physicists, who hopefully catch wind of this post and use it to inform their calculations."
Oreshnik is a weapon that completely changes the paradigm of strategic strikes. Hypersonic penetrators are means of destruction of deeply buried and armored targets (high-value targets).
At the time they were designed and their mode of employment was established, they were intended to protect the military and/or political center command from nuclear strikes.
Obviously, in the event of a nuclear attack on such an HVT (of lesser importance than a government), a nuclear strike in response inevitably followed as the "nuclear exchange" was initiated.
But, if such a HVT is hit with a hypersonic weapon without nuclear payload, the probability of a nuclear response is greatly diminished.
The ability to eliminate high-level HVT was, until Oreshnik, the exclusive attribute of nuclear strikes. This is no longer the case.
The lack of large areas covered in rubble is completely baffling. From the fact that the area is still surrounded and inaccessible to the public we can conclude that the damage is much more extensive than at first sight. There is certainly extensive underground damage the extent of which must be kept out of public view.
Any conventional explosive is a waste of potential energy applied to target if the VOLUME of the submunitions/impactors is the limiting factor rather than weight.
Yep a game changer weapon. 36 x 500lbs bomb load is a LOT of punch power when used against heavy concrete - not to mention far better penetration power.
Also cost effective - way cheaper than using Iskanders or similar weapons.
They aren't bombs. They're earth penetrating inert submunitions. However instead of submunitions, single conventional explosive MIRVs could be used. We still haven't seen that been done but I assume we will, soon. Those small submunitions are too small to contain explosives. They're tiny. Their kinetic energy is not due to any explosive power. They're bullets, plain and simple.
They're not "earth penetrating submunitions." Hypersonic impacts result in energy transfers that are more like "obliteration" than "penetration". If you are impacting solid media with a hypersonic impactor you are likely to get a crater diameter of twice its depth. Hardly a penetrator. They are not bullets. They are hypersonic impactors. It's a completely different regime of physics. The only reason they are seen to exhibit penetrating power here is because the floors of a building are not even remotely as tough as consistent media. You will never see these used against a deep target because it would be retarded. You will also not see explicit tenders for penetrators result in hypersonic designs because that is likewise retarded.
Are you an astrophysicist (or ballistician/weaponry engineer?) with hands on experience modeling impact events/writing software algorithms to predict such physical events? If so, I have some questions I would very much like to ask! Let me know?
As I note hereabouts the full form as envisaged is a single multi-ton impactor, which owing to prior inadequacies of Lift Systems existent could not be 'deployed'.
The Oreshnik is simply the Russians 'testing' the actual effects of Hyper-Kinetic projectiles - dense, HARDENED - against suitable targets.
If thier assessment is 'positive' then the OBSOLETE ICBM fleets of every nation on Earth could be 're-purposed' to a new and formidable use. I say 'Obsolete' since even the most recent DEEP Analyses of the effects of a real 'Nuclear Broadsid' are simply an ELE event in the Northern Hemisphere, at least. In essence, Civilizational Suicide if ever deployed.
The REAL Hyper-Kinetic 'Full Bore' implementation would upon impact 'BLOW' an incredible shockwave DEEP into the strata where it impacts, effectively becoming the ULTIMATE 'Bunker Buster'.
Unless - as the Russians have done at Mt Yamantau - the installation is EXTRAORDINARILY DEEP then the Full Form variant would likely be unstoppable.
6-7 tons hardened, DENSE projectile, moving at Orbital velocity, shedding VERY LITTLE OF it's velocity until impact.
Not something I'd want to on the receiving end of...
In spite of all the "Wunderwaffe" claims and "total obliteration", very little damage is visible, after an Oreshnik salvo. And the physics would agree with that. We now know that, due to this article. It in fact does so little *visible* damage at least that it requires hours, scrutinizing high-res sat pics to detect 0.01% structural damage to the targeted factory.
Mike Mihajlovic has some interesting insights at his site. I think what I've seen so far dismisses too readily the effects of kinetic impacts as trivial (see Postol's work although I understand how he got to his conclusion). It's reasonable to think that based on 1st order physics, and that the impactor converts on contact into a ball of plasma, but it's misleading.
It doesn't take into account the detailed penetration dynamics of solids at Mach 10 and the resulting shock generation. Also unaccounted for is the combined impact of multiple shock generators on underground structures.
The key technology that the Russians apparently have is something that is solid at 4000 C. This is not unreasonable. There are known ultra-high temperature ceramics in that regime (e.g. hafnium carbide).
@Regan Howard
Really, HfC? And at only a density of about 11g/cc... Who would think of using such a light material! (Guilty).
(Also, HfC starts to oxidize in atmosphere at rather low temperatures, below 500° C?)
I've learned a lot about aerospace heat shielding, friction heat dissipation & reduction, exotic ceramic/heat shield technologies, material properties and engineering of composites for reentry bodies fabricated with same these last days. Wish it were towards a more constructive end, can't we get back to exploring our solar system soon?
I don't get how people are so surprised by this claim of 4000C, as if astronauts haven't been returning from 2-3x the speed and remained uncooked. It's just ablative shielding, it prevents the payloads from even reaching that temperature...
Excellent Analysis…I commend you your studious efforts, truly.
JOG…
Bloody well done. That's excellent. That's investigative reporting and its science, too.
So where's all the 'turned to dust' ? That was maybe all rubbish. Or maybe when we find where the other impacts were we might know more.
This is great. We need more of it. Thank you. :)
Love me some BMA; family. So many thanks for your stack! Old lady with a virtual kat🇷🇸💙🇷🇺❤️🐈⬛
I'd argue that the damage an Oreshnik does is so minimal that it does not justify its extreme cost. Its projectiles do not explode and destroy everything in a wide blast radius but transfer their energy nearly exclusively to the ground. I'd argue that a conventionally-armed Oreshnik is, damage-wise, around the same as a single Iskander in most scenarios. But an Oreshnik costs an order of magnitude more. The Oreshnik is extremely bad value-for-money without nuclear payload. So I predict that it therefore will only be used a couple more times for testing/intimidation/propaganda purposes and then never again - at least not without nukes on it.. The missile is specifically designed and intended to deliver MIRVed nukes.
It's great to show the capability to nuke Europe in an economical manner and to show Russians that "we can hit things w/o their ability to intercept it".
The Cost/Benefit analysis you suggest is somewhat flawed, if you'll permit me...
The Concept derives from a SciFi writer(s) imagination - Jerry Pounelle and Larry Niven, circa the late 60's or early 70's - named thereby "The Rods of GOD'...
In thier 'conception' onesuch would be a SINGLE IMPACTOR weighing several tons, being delivered from Orbit, AT Orbital re-entry velocity. Those would consist of Platinum plated Tungsten or Tungsten Carbide Rods which when striking the ground would best be approximated as a Subterrainian Nuclear detonation...without a NUKE...
Thought to br something on the order of 15 Kt, roughly.
The FOUNDATIONS uderlying most everything within a radius of roughly a 1 mile radius whould be SHEARED out from under all structures within the 'Blast Radius' of impact...
So why is that here germaine?
Simple...the 'Hazel Switch' - which is what Oreshnik MEANS in Russian - is SOLELY a test case for Hyper-kinetic weapons...and NOT the FINAL FORM thereof, IMHO.
Imagine now a SATAN II Super-Heavy ICBM carrying one OR more of those...
Does that illuminate what is here transpiring?
If NOT, then consider that such as THAT might - just might - be capable of reducing NORAD to 'dust' owing to it's EXTREME penetration capability...
The author here did an EXCELLENT job detailing 'Damage Assessment'...a truly commendable effort, IMHO.
BE Well everyone...and Blessed also.
JOG...
What you wrote makes no sense. We're talking about the Oreshnik, not about SF weapons that are *perhaps* feasible with a SpaceX Starship.
Really...you seem to KNOW very little actually.
Here's my 'Bona Fides' BS- Mathematics, BS - Physics, SEPERATE, not a BS with a MINOR, MS -Nuclear Engineering.
How about your's?
JOG
How about "your's"? Well:
It's "yours", not "your's".
Yours is a second person possessive pronoun. It indicates that something is owned by the person you’re addressing, both for second person singular and second person plural.
For example, you might say, “This pencil is yours, not mine.” This sentence means the pencil belongs to the person being addressed, not the person speaking.
Your’s with an apostrophe isn’t a real word, it’s just an incorrect spelling. If you accidentally add an apostrophe to the correct spelling, yours, your writing will look less professional and might confuse your reader.
As to your attempt to "pull rank" with all your "BS-es": Pulling rank is a recognized discussion trick, not a real argument.
You are talking poop brother. The rods from god would impact at about the same velocity as Oreshnik did, just weigh a bit more. Seeing as how KE is linear in mass that ratio in energy would translate to whatever is the ratio in mass, i.e. at most 10-20 tons of TNT. Oreshnik, R-36 and RS-28 can barely lift a single of such tungsten rods, being constrained both by mass and dimensions. There is also very little evidence that it can come anywhere close to the depths of NORAD based on some evidence of it penetrating a couple floors of concrete building. It's a literal mountain made of rock lol.
Before you start wanking off about your academic credentials (which, judging by your strange capitalisation, were probably attained decades ago), I have an MSc in Theoretical Physics and it's just as irrelevant to weapons design and practical collision mechanics as nuclear engineering is.
One question - where did you found Oreshnik cost for your "deep" analysis?
As an engineer in R&D and manufacturing, I know that when X is much larger and much more complex and much more sophisticated than Y, that X is much more expensive than Y, when manufactured by a factory with access to similar technology in a similar economy to the factory that makes X. X and Y are both made by Russian missile manufacturers - perhaps even by the same factory.
I'm well-versed in the complexity and hence cost of ultra-accurate gyroscopic ring lasers, ultra-accurate bus maneuvering motors with their valves and gas generators and controllers and such. The cost reflects how long it takes and how many people it takes to manufacture something. Relative to a Khinzhal, an Oreshnik is much more expensive for obvious reasons (to an engineer who knows what both are capable of).
The only problem with this is that the two systems can't be compared, because the range of Oreshnik is 5-10x that of the Kinzhal. The valuable comparison is whether Oreshnik is more cost effective than however many MRBMs packaged with a conventional explosive warhead you'd need to duplicate its destructive effect (which is over a wide area)
This makes no sense, unless you're suggesting that Russia plans to take out the UK's government. Highly unlikely. The UK has its own nuclear arsenal.
@Andreas Oreshnik
Ultra precise maneuvering reaction motors & related valving, electromechanical controls, especially very fast acting ones for hypersonic use ARE expensive, difficult to mass produce in spec & etc..
So think about possible "asymmetrical engineering":approaches to obviate this manufacturing bottleneck?
Since it has been broadly hinted that these new RF hypersonic reentry vehicles use surface ionic effects to reduce both atmospheric friction and RADAR visibility, and it has long been theorized that such surface effects could be used to STEER (or even PROPEL?!) high velocity vehicles in atmospheric environments? And solid state electronics to control and implement such ionic steering might be cheaper, easier to mass produce/less susceptible to violent G forces & vibration, less demanding of master machinist level talent to QA test and FASTER ACTING than legacy electro mechanicaly valved reaction drive attitude adjustment/thruster systems?
Perhaps they have found a different paradigm.
Goddamn, I would LOVE to see their shop and pick their engineers brains over a few good Czech beers.
Ah...excellent, a THINKER.
One of the VERY INTERESTING 'things' which abides in the realm of Physics is MHD.
That is "Magneto-Hydro-Dynamics'.
IF we DO obtain really efficient Super-Conductors then that 'principle' could very easily be adapted to produce vehicles which DON'T use 'Rocket Engines' in atmosphere...per your observation.
A while back the Japanese tested an MHD system on a watercraft thet named the 'Yamamoto'. That used both Ekectruc AND Magnetic fields to produce - in effect - a Linear Induction motor powering the craft well beyond 115 mph.
The EXACT same principle can be employed in any ionized fas as that too is a CONDUCTOR and so eminently useful in propelling OR steering a vehicle.
Currently the primary difficulty associated therewith lies in prividing SUFFICIENT ekecyrical POWER thereto. Likely a small FUSION reactor would be required to provide that level of compact power.
Naturally, NONESUCH currently exist...though curiously, just a few years ago Martin-Marrietta openly patented a 'Loop-Handle' design for just such a small, extremely COMPACT unit...which promptly VANISHED from all scientific and technical pubs FORTHWITH...
The aspect of the Oreshnik which EVERYONE seems ti be missing is that THIS IS the very first such EVER DEPLOYED.
Does anyone want to compare 'Fat Man' OR 'Little Boy' to modern Nuclear ordinance?
Once again, the RUSSIANS ARE 'pushing thr envelope' of what IS possible, whilst the entire WEST erroneously believes that 'They' have a GOOD HANDLE on 'things'.
The STUDITY of that mindset is simply TITANIC...truly.
JOG...
Nothing you wrote makes any sense. The reentry vehicles are only released at a stage where they can't be intercepted anymore so RADAR visibility is irrelevant.
Making each submunition steerable would require dozens of extremely complex, expensive, bulky electromechanics (ring laser gyroscope etc.) and a means to electronically modulate plasma etc. so that it would not even fit in the submunition. Neither would that be *necessary* - the submunitions can be adequately targeted before re-entry. Also: How the hell would each submunition know where it is and where the target is, while being inside a glowing ball of plasma?
You'd argue wrong because this Oreshnik lacked a warhead and thus did not have explosive (just kinetic power). Normally it would carry the equivalent of a FAB 300. Imagine 36 FAB 300s falling on a target at once with supersonic speeds.
Surely it could do serious damage but it would be much more economical to do that damage with the traditional means, Russia has at its disposal. The Oreshnik is the ideal way to nuke Europe and that's what it might be used for, one day, if Europe keeps facilitating attacks on Russia. I think that's the real message.
No. It is not "more economical" with traditional means - reason being that it 1) cannot be shot down and 2) is high precision without being an ICBM 3) can penetrate hardened Soviet buildings
Traditional means are less high precision, cannot penetrate hardened structures and can be shot down
Your claims that a Khinzhal can be shot down and is low precision are false, making everything you wrote false or not appliccable.
What seems to be missing from most discussions is whether the submunitions were depleted uranium (it’s pyrophoric) and tungsten (to hold the mass together during reentry until impact). Think of the damage a small DU round does entering an armored vehicle, and scale up from there.
@HalifaxCB
Spend some time comparing strengths of candidate materials at elevated temperatures, tendency to ablate/oxidize in atmosphere at hypersonic speeds. Don't limit candidates to what has been used in artillery systems, those are lower velocity applications... Look at patent la apps and research papers for nitrides, carbides, borides and inter metallic compounds/mixtures of all these too.
DU is used by USA & others for kinetic penetrators in anti armor systems because it was CHEAP and AVAILABLE, in fact a WASTE PRODUCT of cold war nuclear programs which they wanted to DISPOSE of rather than store securely forever... DU is not the BEST candidate in all (or most!) regards in THIS application and at such velocities.
Also, plenty of OTHER high density/refractory materials will very happily burn in air with high heat outputs after being smashed by impact into white hot, micron sized particles or even vapor... See here:
http://www.sciencemadness.org/talk/files.php?pid=500092&aid=63212
AAAAAHH, aren't the missiles capable of carrying nuclear bomblets? Isn't that what this demonstration was all about"
No, Oreshnik appears to be a weapon specifically designed to deliver kinetic projectiles
U sure? Also was there an actual payload or was the damage purely from the kinetic energy of the projectiles this time?
@Amerikanets
Aside from the kinetic impactor bodies themselves (and any related controls), the whole MECHANICAL and airframe/drive system appears to be repurposed legacy late USSR/early RF program developed, mostly pre existing technology with new software/logic/sensor/guidance circuitry- and this new final payload?
Exactly. The Oreshnik has only one conceivable use, which is delivering up to six MIRVed nuclear warheads. The submunitions are intended to be a variety of decoys. And this demonstration was presented to the Russian public as a showcase of Russia's capabilities and a threat to the West that Russia can nuke Polish ports and factories, Romanian NATO installations and so on, w/o getting the European populace too riled up about: "Russia's threatening to nuke us!". Oreshnik is not about threatening to kill the UK government or blowing up Ukrainian installations. It's about showing that Russia has credible means to accurately nuke, with small-yield warheads, anything they want nuked in Europe.
Previously, the Treaty was terminated at the behest of the United States. Well, now the Russians can call any missile, for example, "HAZEL". What to load it with - it depends on the situation. The Russians are never in a hurry to harness...
Well written and informative. As noted, the plant is known to have multiple layers below ground level. Without access to inspection, I doubt we will ever know the true extent of the damage.
Hopefully the next test will be somewhere honest people can look at the aftermath and publish what they find.
It is disgusting the way the West is deriding and ignoring all warnings.
The author probably did not pay attention to the abundantly green trees in the pictures? All November in Ukraine the air temperature was within +7-2 Celsius. Do you know what trees look like in November in Ukraine?
There was wet snow on 11 November https://nashemisto.dp.ua/ru/2024/11/11/anticiklonalnoe-masshtabnoe-pole-smenit-mokryj-sneg-kakaja-pogoda-budet-v-ukraine-12-nojabrja/.
After such weather the frozen leaves just fall to the ground.
This is how the trees looked in Dnipro a month earlier on 19 October
https://www.instagram.com/avtosfera.dnepr/p/DCUiCxqNZdi/?next=%2Fbluegodzi%2Ftagged%2F&locale=%E5%9C%A8%E7%BA%BF%E5%AE%9A%E5%88%B6%E5%A1%94%E5%90%89%E5%85%8B%E6%96%AF%E5%9D%A6TEF%E8%AF%81%E4%B9%A6%E8%81%94%E7%B3%BB%7B%E5%A8%81%E4%BF%A1%2BTG%2F%E9%A3%9E%E6%9C%BA%3A%40buth27&hl=de&img_index=15
You seem to have been deceived by false images from early October 2024.
"The Oreshnik’s projectiles certainly seem to have penetrative power, but how deep they go is beyond my pay grade. I’ll leave that problem to the amateur physicists, who hopefully catch wind of this post and use it to inform their calculations."
On it.
https://forrestbishop.substack.com/p/back-engineering-oreshnik-second
Oreshnik is a weapon that completely changes the paradigm of strategic strikes. Hypersonic penetrators are means of destruction of deeply buried and armored targets (high-value targets).
At the time they were designed and their mode of employment was established, they were intended to protect the military and/or political center command from nuclear strikes.
Obviously, in the event of a nuclear attack on such an HVT (of lesser importance than a government), a nuclear strike in response inevitably followed as the "nuclear exchange" was initiated.
But, if such a HVT is hit with a hypersonic weapon without nuclear payload, the probability of a nuclear response is greatly diminished.
The ability to eliminate high-level HVT was, until Oreshnik, the exclusive attribute of nuclear strikes. This is no longer the case.
The lack of large areas covered in rubble is completely baffling. From the fact that the area is still surrounded and inaccessible to the public we can conclude that the damage is much more extensive than at first sight. There is certainly extensive underground damage the extent of which must be kept out of public view.
A terrifying weapon. Imagine if one of these was aimed at a decision center as say a parliament or a ministry.
Keep in mind that much of the real damage is invisible, as a kinetic warhead buries itself deep underground.
Gooood job! TNT (C4) in progress....
@Pinokkio
Any conventional explosive is a waste of potential energy applied to target if the VOLUME of the submunitions/impactors is the limiting factor rather than weight.
Yep a game changer weapon. 36 x 500lbs bomb load is a LOT of punch power when used against heavy concrete - not to mention far better penetration power.
Also cost effective - way cheaper than using Iskanders or similar weapons.
They aren't bombs. They're earth penetrating inert submunitions. However instead of submunitions, single conventional explosive MIRVs could be used. We still haven't seen that been done but I assume we will, soon. Those small submunitions are too small to contain explosives. They're tiny. Their kinetic energy is not due to any explosive power. They're bullets, plain and simple.
They're not "earth penetrating submunitions." Hypersonic impacts result in energy transfers that are more like "obliteration" than "penetration". If you are impacting solid media with a hypersonic impactor you are likely to get a crater diameter of twice its depth. Hardly a penetrator. They are not bullets. They are hypersonic impactors. It's a completely different regime of physics. The only reason they are seen to exhibit penetrating power here is because the floors of a building are not even remotely as tough as consistent media. You will never see these used against a deep target because it would be retarded. You will also not see explicit tenders for penetrators result in hypersonic designs because that is likewise retarded.
@thoughtgardener
Are you an astrophysicist (or ballistician/weaponry engineer?) with hands on experience modeling impact events/writing software algorithms to predict such physical events? If so, I have some questions I would very much like to ask! Let me know?
Not in the 'Full Form' application...
As I note hereabouts the full form as envisaged is a single multi-ton impactor, which owing to prior inadequacies of Lift Systems existent could not be 'deployed'.
The Oreshnik is simply the Russians 'testing' the actual effects of Hyper-Kinetic projectiles - dense, HARDENED - against suitable targets.
If thier assessment is 'positive' then the OBSOLETE ICBM fleets of every nation on Earth could be 're-purposed' to a new and formidable use. I say 'Obsolete' since even the most recent DEEP Analyses of the effects of a real 'Nuclear Broadsid' are simply an ELE event in the Northern Hemisphere, at least. In essence, Civilizational Suicide if ever deployed.
The REAL Hyper-Kinetic 'Full Bore' implementation would upon impact 'BLOW' an incredible shockwave DEEP into the strata where it impacts, effectively becoming the ULTIMATE 'Bunker Buster'.
Unless - as the Russians have done at Mt Yamantau - the installation is EXTRAORDINARILY DEEP then the Full Form variant would likely be unstoppable.
6-7 tons hardened, DENSE projectile, moving at Orbital velocity, shedding VERY LITTLE OF it's velocity until impact.
Not something I'd want to on the receiving end of...
JOG...
In spite of all the "Wunderwaffe" claims and "total obliteration", very little damage is visible, after an Oreshnik salvo. And the physics would agree with that. We now know that, due to this article. It in fact does so little *visible* damage at least that it requires hours, scrutinizing high-res sat pics to detect 0.01% structural damage to the targeted factory.
@Andreas Oreshnik
Yes. Very dense, quite fast and very hot bullets on arrival, apparently with high sectional densities.
Have you looked at the suite of old USSR/unclassified RF (and other) engineering texts, diagrams and formulai referenced here:
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/oreshnik-against-zelenskys-bunker?utm_medium=reader2&triedRedirect=true