There is another explanation for the lack of visible evidence of this strike. We know that submunitions are small, heavy, fast and hot. Also, they don't explode on contact. If they were made of something like tungsten and weighed 100 kg, they would have a volume of 5 lt. Assuming they are stretched out and pointed, their diameter would b…
There is another explanation for the lack of visible evidence of this strike. We know that submunitions are small, heavy, fast and hot. Also, they don't explode on contact. If they were made of something like tungsten and weighed 100 kg, they would have a volume of 5 lt. Assuming they are stretched out and pointed, their diameter would be much less than that of other missiles, as little as 20-50cm. Given the speed and momentum of these submunitions, they are likely to punch through the relatively thin industrial roofing, leaving a small, neat hole, which could be all but invisible to satellite photography.
In the video, each specific submunition leaves a distinct (albeit small) afterglow which lasts for ~1-2 sec. Ejecta of sorts? I am not an expert of course, but it is hard for me to imagine how that afterglow can result from a neat ~20-50 cm hole in the roofing that is not seen on the imagery.
The 20-50 cm dimension is the probable diameter of the submunition. This submunition will be preceded by a shock wave and surrounded by a corona of very hot plasma. The shockwave will almost certainly pierce the roofing, and the plasma at up to 4000ºC will vaporise any material it comes into contact with, leading to the conical flash seen in the videos.
These weapons are not designed to produce the type of superficial structural damage seen in the satellite photos but to hit deep underground and produce something akin to an earthquake.
Has anyone looked at seismic data for the night of the raid?
I fully agree with all you just said. In light of this (shock wave, observable ejecta), I doubt that the results of such a hit would not been seen on the hi-res imagery amerikanets acquired. Thus I would think that either photos are of earlier times, they are edited, or Oreshnik hit elsewhere. Seismic data would be an interesting angle, it would indeed be interesting to look at. Also, if I remember correctly, there were two (or more?) videos showing the Oreshnik "arrival" from somewhat different angles. Have any body tried to use that to triangulate the hit location?
To get some sense of what an impactor striking at 3m/sec looks like visually, so far as signatures from visible light, spray of glowing atomized/gaseous/burning target materials? There are plenty of high speed videos and still images available of explosively formed penetrator impacts and lined shaped charge impacts. The EFP will be less obscured by effects related to the explosives driving the impactor, though these are also generally somewhat lower in impact velocity.
For that matter, I recall having seen radiography images and even high speed videos of such penetrator strikes (similar to slow motion video X rays). Several years ago, I would need to dig for those sources.
There is another explanation for the lack of visible evidence of this strike. We know that submunitions are small, heavy, fast and hot. Also, they don't explode on contact. If they were made of something like tungsten and weighed 100 kg, they would have a volume of 5 lt. Assuming they are stretched out and pointed, their diameter would be much less than that of other missiles, as little as 20-50cm. Given the speed and momentum of these submunitions, they are likely to punch through the relatively thin industrial roofing, leaving a small, neat hole, which could be all but invisible to satellite photography.
In the video, each specific submunition leaves a distinct (albeit small) afterglow which lasts for ~1-2 sec. Ejecta of sorts? I am not an expert of course, but it is hard for me to imagine how that afterglow can result from a neat ~20-50 cm hole in the roofing that is not seen on the imagery.
The 20-50 cm dimension is the probable diameter of the submunition. This submunition will be preceded by a shock wave and surrounded by a corona of very hot plasma. The shockwave will almost certainly pierce the roofing, and the plasma at up to 4000ºC will vaporise any material it comes into contact with, leading to the conical flash seen in the videos.
These weapons are not designed to produce the type of superficial structural damage seen in the satellite photos but to hit deep underground and produce something akin to an earthquake.
Has anyone looked at seismic data for the night of the raid?
I fully agree with all you just said. In light of this (shock wave, observable ejecta), I doubt that the results of such a hit would not been seen on the hi-res imagery amerikanets acquired. Thus I would think that either photos are of earlier times, they are edited, or Oreshnik hit elsewhere. Seismic data would be an interesting angle, it would indeed be interesting to look at. Also, if I remember correctly, there were two (or more?) videos showing the Oreshnik "arrival" from somewhat different angles. Have any body tried to use that to triangulate the hit location?
@billb
To get some sense of what an impactor striking at 3m/sec looks like visually, so far as signatures from visible light, spray of glowing atomized/gaseous/burning target materials? There are plenty of high speed videos and still images available of explosively formed penetrator impacts and lined shaped charge impacts. The EFP will be less obscured by effects related to the explosives driving the impactor, though these are also generally somewhat lower in impact velocity.
For that matter, I recall having seen radiography images and even high speed videos of such penetrator strikes (similar to slow motion video X rays). Several years ago, I would need to dig for those sources.